July Oil Market Analysis - Commodity Research Group

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Thanks for listening to the CRG Channel on the EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

If you don’t have 30 minutes, I recommend starting at 28:30 for a discussion on crack values, running old refineries hard, key numbers to watch in the coming weeks, and why July gasoline demand could be highest ever.

Topics and Time Stamps:

[01:30] This weeks EIA’s. Supportive draws (finally), but can they continue?

[03:50] Demand side of the equation.

[05:20] Domestic production and SPR sales.

[08:00] Crude runs and how cracks have recovered since June.

[10:00] Product export demand – eye on Latin America.

[14:00] The recent short-covering rally and CFTC numbers.

[17:15] Latest on OPEC – Nigeria and Libya success is undermining deal.

[19:25] Global demand showing strength – Case for Q3 inventory draws.

[22:00] Price expectations, lowering the range – $55 is a stretch.

[24:30] Price curve structure.

[25:20] Price projection and curve structure. Eye on Brent and Cracks.

[28:30] Crack forecasts – Running old refineries hard.

[32:00] Key numbers to watch in coming weeks – Why July gas demand may be highest ever.

About the Experts

Andrew Lebow

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

James Colburn

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.