In this 40 minute podcast, veteran oil analysts Andy Lebow and Jim Colburn of Commodity Research Group discuss the key factors influencing oil prices right now.
Trust me that it is time well spent, but if you don’t have 40 mins, I suggest starting at minute 10:00 for an in depth discussion on US product demand or around minute 17:00 for Andy’s thoughts on why oil markets could rebalance in the 2nd quarter.
Topics and Time Stamps:
[01:08] OPEC Compliance – Key theme dominating the oil market
[04:00] US production response – EIA adjustments
[06:30] Net length in speculative money – a bearish factor
[10:00] US product demand – ‘Tale of Two PAD’s’
[17:00] Global refinery turnarounds – Product rebalancing
[17:45] Why crude market rebalancing could happen in Q2
[21:30] Options – $60 call in June and Dec
[22:15] Geopolitical risk – Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela
[27:00] Border adjustment tax – WTI/Brent flat call
[33:00] Implied volatility in crude – Lowest since 2014
[37:00] Producer hedging – Where are they?
About the Experts
Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.